Obasanjo/Jonathan rift, governors’ defection, National Conference, others to shape Nigeria’s politics in 2014 (Scene 2)
Shortly after, 37 PDP lawmakers in the House of Representatives followed suit with their defection to the APC amid threat by the ruling party to declare their seats vacant. It was an event that stripped the ruling party of its majority status in the House of Representatives, which it had enjoyed since the return of democracy in 1999.
The Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, who has become critical of the PDP-controlled executive arm, is reportedly under pressure from the APC to also quit the PDP; just as there were reports before the close of 2013 that about 22 senators were already planning to dump the ruling party.
Similarly, towards the end of the year, the APC leaders, in their recruitment drive, visited some senior members of the PDP during which they formally invited them to join the opposition party. Among those
visited were former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar; with only the latter not being a card-carrying member of the ruling party.
It is believed that some of lawmakers and leaders of the ruling party might eventually yield to the pressure from the opposition in the New Year. Should this happen, it will further redefine the
nation’s political landscape and ultimately determine the strength of the two parties in the 2015 electoral contest.
APC National Convention
Even as the APC remains the major beneficiary of the crisis in the PDP, not a few believe it will have its own share of implosion this year. What with the strange bedfellows moving daily into the self-styled progressive party as well as the infighting that may characterise the sharing of offices in its impending national convention? Upon its registration last July 1, merging parties named its interim officers based on a sharing agreement. The parties also agreed to hold a national convention after one year to elect its
substantive officers.
However, not a few believe that with the new entrants from the PDP, some initial calculations as regards sharing of party position might be altered. Already, the decision of the APC national leadership to
hand over the party structures to the five governors who recently decamped to it in their respective states is causing ripples. What is also certain is the outcome of the convention could throw up sectional and individual ambitions, especially who picks the presidential ticket for the 2015 general elections.
Governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun States
Although the November 16 governorship election in Anambra State somewhat provided the nation’s two biggest and rival parties, APC and PDP to test their might. The real test, Nigeria’s political watchers
believe, will come to play in Ekiti and Osun States where governorship polls are billed to hold in 2014. The reason is simple: Unlike in Anambra where the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, is in
power, both Ekiti and Osun states in the South West political zone are run by the APC, which will desire to keep them away from the PDP. The latter ruled both states at some point.
Even so, the internal politics that will play out in the APC in both states ahead of the elections is also something to watch. For now, the party’s body language indicates that it desires to allow the
incumbents in the states, Kayode Fayemi and Rauf Aregbesola, respectively, to have another shot at the gubernatorial seats. This certainly has not gone down well with others who want to try their luck. For instance, in Ekiti, Mr. Fayemi’s fiercest challenger, Opeyemi Bamidele, has dumped the APC for the Labour Party, LP, to actualize his ambition. It is not clear who the PDP, which ruled the state between 2003 and 2009 will present as its governorship candidate. Major aspirants on the PDP platform are a former governor, Ayo Fayose, and a serving minister, Caleb Olubolade. The PDP is already having its fair share of the ambition-related crisis that is expected to worsen as the election approaches.
The situation is not radically different in Osun.
In the neighbouring Osun, the PDP will yet make another desperate effort to recapture the state. A former deputy governor, Iyiola Omisore, who is angling for the governorship seat and appears set to
pick the PDP ticket, seems to have found a ready ally in the incumbent National Secretary of the ruling party, Wale Oladipo, also an indigene of the state, to dislodge the APC from power. Clearly the battle
promises to be epic as Osun is also one of the states where APC is strongest. The party’s interim National Chairman, Bisi Akande, was governor in the state between 1999 and 2003; while the immediate past governor of the state, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, is currently struggling to retain his position as the National Secretary of the PDP, but is believed to have his heart in the APC. Mr. Oyinlola was the National Secretary of the defunct ‘New PDP’ which fused into the APC.
The Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, who has become critical of the PDP-controlled executive arm, is reportedly under pressure from the APC to also quit the PDP; just as there were reports before the close of 2013 that about 22 senators were already planning to dump the ruling party.
Similarly, towards the end of the year, the APC leaders, in their recruitment drive, visited some senior members of the PDP during which they formally invited them to join the opposition party. Among those
visited were former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar; with only the latter not being a card-carrying member of the ruling party.
It is believed that some of lawmakers and leaders of the ruling party might eventually yield to the pressure from the opposition in the New Year. Should this happen, it will further redefine the
nation’s political landscape and ultimately determine the strength of the two parties in the 2015 electoral contest.
APC National Convention
Even as the APC remains the major beneficiary of the crisis in the PDP, not a few believe it will have its own share of implosion this year. What with the strange bedfellows moving daily into the self-styled progressive party as well as the infighting that may characterise the sharing of offices in its impending national convention? Upon its registration last July 1, merging parties named its interim officers based on a sharing agreement. The parties also agreed to hold a national convention after one year to elect its
substantive officers.
However, not a few believe that with the new entrants from the PDP, some initial calculations as regards sharing of party position might be altered. Already, the decision of the APC national leadership to
hand over the party structures to the five governors who recently decamped to it in their respective states is causing ripples. What is also certain is the outcome of the convention could throw up sectional and individual ambitions, especially who picks the presidential ticket for the 2015 general elections.
Governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun States
Although the November 16 governorship election in Anambra State somewhat provided the nation’s two biggest and rival parties, APC and PDP to test their might. The real test, Nigeria’s political watchers
believe, will come to play in Ekiti and Osun States where governorship polls are billed to hold in 2014. The reason is simple: Unlike in Anambra where the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, is in
power, both Ekiti and Osun states in the South West political zone are run by the APC, which will desire to keep them away from the PDP. The latter ruled both states at some point.
Even so, the internal politics that will play out in the APC in both states ahead of the elections is also something to watch. For now, the party’s body language indicates that it desires to allow the
incumbents in the states, Kayode Fayemi and Rauf Aregbesola, respectively, to have another shot at the gubernatorial seats. This certainly has not gone down well with others who want to try their luck. For instance, in Ekiti, Mr. Fayemi’s fiercest challenger, Opeyemi Bamidele, has dumped the APC for the Labour Party, LP, to actualize his ambition. It is not clear who the PDP, which ruled the state between 2003 and 2009 will present as its governorship candidate. Major aspirants on the PDP platform are a former governor, Ayo Fayose, and a serving minister, Caleb Olubolade. The PDP is already having its fair share of the ambition-related crisis that is expected to worsen as the election approaches.
The situation is not radically different in Osun.
In the neighbouring Osun, the PDP will yet make another desperate effort to recapture the state. A former deputy governor, Iyiola Omisore, who is angling for the governorship seat and appears set to
pick the PDP ticket, seems to have found a ready ally in the incumbent National Secretary of the ruling party, Wale Oladipo, also an indigene of the state, to dislodge the APC from power. Clearly the battle
promises to be epic as Osun is also one of the states where APC is strongest. The party’s interim National Chairman, Bisi Akande, was governor in the state between 1999 and 2003; while the immediate past governor of the state, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, is currently struggling to retain his position as the National Secretary of the PDP, but is believed to have his heart in the APC. Mr. Oyinlola was the National Secretary of the defunct ‘New PDP’ which fused into the APC.
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