Is Russia ready to move into eastern Ukraine?

Whatever its shortcomings, Mr Giles says "today the Russian military is vastly more capable than it was in 2008 and much more capable than certainly the Ukrainians - and superior to the forces currently deployed on the territory of all of its Western neighbours". He believes that Russia can sustain this military threat to Ukraine for some considerable time. "The Russian units deployed on Ukraine's eastern border can probably remain in the field longer than many Western planners assume," he says. "Russia is not much concerned at inconvenience or short-term financial costs if it makes long-term strategic gains. "Many indicators and warnings of preparation for a possible invasion are in place, including logistics, food supplies, medical services, and interior troops which would be used for control of occupied areas," he says. "But this is not necessarily an indication that Russia will invade, simply that Russia wishes to be prepared to do so given the opportunity or the perceived necessity. " And he argues Moscow has gone to considerable lengths to be in a position to act. "Prior to the crisis coming to a head, every major amphibious assault ship Russia had in Europe was pre-positioned in the Black Sea, with units moved thousands of miles from both the Baltic and the Northern Fleets." Short war While Russia may be able to keep its forces in the field for some weeks or even months, Mr McDermott notes that if Russia does make its move, any conflict will have to be over swiftly. "Any intervention in Ukraine must be resolved within days, Russia has no defence or economic capacity to go in for the long haul," he says. Ukraine is of huge strategic importance to Moscow; Mr McDermott underlines the importance of seeing this through Russia's eyes. "This crisis seen from Moscow's perspective, is a 'Eurasian crisis', not a European crisis as such," he says. "That means it is about Russia and its future role in Eurasia." Russian President Vladimir Putin "learnt to play hard ball in this crisis by carefully observing how the US and Nato acted since 1999", Mr McDermott says. "He saw Nato out-of-area operations as a threat to Russian interests, an alliance that expanded beyond its means, and a US that acted as a global hegemon, including promoting 'colour revolutions' close to Russia. "The latest crisis was one step too far, and Putin relied on a Russian intelligence assessment that views the events of the Maidan [the popular protests in Kiev and other cities] in a very different way to the West's reading - and he made his move."